Arsenal's title challenge has not even begun yet and already Mikel Arteta has been handed the first almighty headache of the Premier League season: how does he replace his transformative No. 9?
Gabriel Jesus will miss the start of the season after undergoing a minor surgical procedure to clear up an "irritation" in his knee, one related to the injury that cost him three months of the 2022-23 campaign. Such a lengthy absence is not on the cards this time around -- Arteta said he expects to be without the Brazilian for "a few weeks" -- but the opening Premier League game against Nottingham Forest will be beyond Jesus. The fear is that he may not be back until after Arsenal welcome Manchester United to the Emirates Stadium on Sept. 3.
The silver lining to this particular cloud is that Arsenal have coped without their star forward before. Indeed, when Jesus rose again in mid-March, he found his side just where he had left them, safely ensconced at the top of the Premier League table. In the nearly three months they were without their transformative summer signing, the Gunners had a return that actually eclipsed the team they were in the 24 league games that Jesus started.
Without him they averaged more points, goals, expected goals (xG), shots, final third entries and passes completed. As many predicted when news broke of the Brazilian's knee surgery, the wheels would subsequently fall off the Arsenal title wagon. It just was not while he was sidelined. Then again, that correlation does not equate to anything like causation. The output might have improved but the Arsenal of the post-World Cup break had to scrap for everything they got. Rarely did they dispatch teams with the same gusto and gumption that they had with their No. 9 in tow.
If they are to keep their head above water again this time, their center forwards will have to deliver. Then again, Eddie Nketiah would insist he has already proven he can do exactly that. The man who stepped into the Arsenal side for Tuesday's Emirates Cup game against Monaco would insist he is no one's backup.
"I don't think I'm here to fill in for anyone," said the 24-year-old. "I'm here to play and contribute to the team obviously, I believe in my abilities and I know I can contribute. The manager has got a tough decision and whenever he calls me, he knows I can deliver and I can help the team, so it's just about us all collectively playing our part to achieve our goals."
Wednesday's friendly certainly offered Nketiah evidence of how far he has come. The Hale End academy graduate led Arsenal out for the first time as captain, watching on was the man who had given him his senior debut, Arsene Wenger back in north London to watch two of his former clubs in action, clearly more taken with the football at the Emirates Stadium than the recently erected statue of him just outside the ground.
"He is obviously really proud of how far I've come from since [my debut]," Nketiah said of Wenger. "It's amazing and it's always good to pick his brain, he is a genius and we're really happy that he's been able to come, been able to catch up with him."
Nketiah entered the fray impressively when Premier League football resumed after the World Cup, scoring four in five Premier League games including a memorable brace in 3-2 victory over Manchester United at the Emirates Stadium.
"I just really enjoyed it and was able to improve myself, test myself. I played some really big games and I was able to help and contribute," he said. "That's what it is about, obviously playing at the highest level, competing for trophies and that's what I want to do. That's what I want to contribute.
"I pride myself on always being ready and whatever role the manager needs me to fill I will always make sure I do my the best and to the best of my ability so I can help the team - that's what it's all about. We train hard every day to get the opportunity to play at the weekend. So not just myself, [there are] many players that can obviously play in that position. We're all ready, we are all good players, we're all able to contribute at different points in the season, everyone's going to have different roles. It's just about being ready and contribute and hopefully I can do that throughout the season."
At his best, Nketiah offers Arteta a pure poacher to rank among the Premier League's very best. His shot map from last season is riddled with the sort of high-value opportunities that might have brought plenty more goals while his average of 0.65 non-penalty xG per 90 minutes was the third-highest mark in the top flight. Fourth in that particular ranking was Jesus. The crux for Nketiah is everything else that the lead striker brings to the team beyond shot quality.
In that regard the youngster has improved: Nketiah is a diligent presser and shows good technique when he drops deep to link up with teammates. What he might never have, however, is the same ease drifting wide to dovetail with forwards, dribble and drive at fullbacks and clip a final pass into the penalty area. Arsenal do, however, have another option up top that can offer that. Much like Nketiah, Leandro Trossard would be eminently entitled to think he is no one's backup. From his arrival in north London in late January, he led the Premier League in assists with his 10 coming at a rate of one every 93 minutes. In preseason, the goals have flowed, a brilliant strike against MLS All-Stars followed by a brace in the win over Barcelona. He ended the Emirates Cup as Arsenal's center forward, he might just be the man to lead the line in the Community Shield on Sunday too.
If needed, Kai Havertz could probably do a job there as well though after all the drama of his three seasons at Chelsea. The German could be forgiven for never wanting to venture into a position that must remind him of the long, hard slog that leading the line at Stamford Bridge became. To some, it might seem perverse, but there's Folarin Balogun, the great hope of U.S. soccer. Asked directly whether Jesus' injury might change the outlook for a young striker wanted by both Milan clubs and several Premier League sides, Arteta's response was clear.
"The plan with Flo doesn't change at all," he said.
Balogun's outstanding form at Reims makes him that rarest of assets for one of the Premier League's richest clubs, a player they would be prepared to sell who actually has a market. For all the talent of the 22-year-old, his greatest value might be the forward or goalkeeper his transfer fee could be reinvested into.
After all, Balogun wants and has proven he is ready to be the starting center forward for a club in one of Europe's top leagues. Arsenal are well stocked in that area and it is hard to see one of the options they currently have at the club taking Jesus' spot in the long term. For now, however, Arteta is going to need to find someone to plug the gap.
